What about that time lag?

It is impossible to trap modern physics into predicting anything with perfect determinism because it deals with probabilities from the outset.
Arthur Eddington–Scientist

Of all the arguments against CO2 caused global warming, the only one no one seems to want to take on is the approximately 800-year lag between the onset of climate warming and the start of the rise in CO2 (warming causes CO2, not the other way around). This lag was revealed in the ice core studies (papers vary indicating a lag of anywhere between 600 and 1000 years). Those ballyhooing global warming don’t deny this lag; they either ignore it or change the subject hoping no one pays any attention to it.

It is interesting that no CO2 research is being directed toward what was going on 800 years ago. Let’s take a little peek at the conditions back then.

800 years ago was 1210. The world was in the middle of the Medieval Warming Period (MWP), which began about 1000 and ended somewhere around 1400. It peaked somewhere, oddly enough, around 1200, which should have been around the MWP’s warmest period. It then began a cooling. If that is so, then the CO2, lagging 800 years behind the temperature, should peak out sometime around now — give or take a couple hundred years.

With a little luck, CO2 will continue to go up for another century or two and give us the benefit of its additional plant growth. We can only hope.

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Published in: on April 16, 2010 at 3:40 pm  Leave a Comment  
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